Simulated effects of site salinity and inundation on long-term growth trajectory and carbon sequestration in monospecific $Rhizophora\; mucronata$ plantation in the Philippines

A mathematical model of coastal forest growth is proposed to describe and test the effects of salinity and inundation in the long-term growth performance and carbon sequestration of monospecific mangrove (Rhizophora mucronata) plantation in the Philippines. We used allometry in expressing the mangrove growth equation, and stochasticity in scheduling population-level events that drive the development of the mangrove forest. Analysis of the model unveils an index, ξ, that could be used in assessing a strategy which could promote optimum carbon-stock accumulation in the long run. If initial plot is configured such that ξ > 1, the R. mucronata plantations could achieve an above-ground biomass per hectare (AGB) of 1000 t/ha, or about 500 tC/ha, in approximately 200 to 250 years post planting. In contrast, the current restoration strategy implemented in the Philippines corresponds to the case that ξ < 1. Consequently, the restored mangroves could not achieve stable growth without the support of costly human assistance such ∗Corresponding author: [email protected] Department of Mathematics, Ateneo de Manila University Department of Environmental Science, Ateneo de Manila University Preprint submitted to Ecological Modelling April 1, 2014 as frequent replanting. Rather, through that typical strategy and in the absence of assistance, the AGB decreases with time until all trees die. Mangrove restoration could therefore be planned strategically to mitigate costly and wasteful implementation. The proposed index ξ thus serves as an early indicator for the progress or demise of restored mangroves.